Lebanon finally has a government, though the months of sectarian politics that preceded it have not gone away. This government is going to have a very difficult time unifying Lebanon, and it will likely fail. There is an awkward balance. While Hizbullah (and its Shiite ally Amal) are the dominant played in the political coalition that controls the government, the two parties only have four seats out of 30! altogether, there are only five Shiites in the government and seven Sunnis. Minorities have a tremendous share of power in the new cabinet, but Hizbullah might not need its share of seats. It has the guns and it still has Syria, giving it extra-governmental power.
The new foreign minister is Adnan Mansour. He was recently Lebanon’s representative to the European Commission (a body of the European Union), but before that was Lebanon’s ambassador to Iran for eight years. He is intimately linked to Iranian interests beyond Tehran’s borders.
But the main issue for the new Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, will be what to do about the international investigation into the killing of Lebanon’s past Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. The investigation is expected to announce indictments against elite members of Hizbullah for the assassination. Despite the fact the last government lost power because it refused to stop supporting that investigation, Mikati might not protect Hizbullah when push comes to shove. How much Hizbullah’s power matters is unclear since it might not be able to impact the investigation or undermine Lebanon’s support of it. Some are predicting Hizbullah might pull off a coup to completely take control of the government for itself, sparking a new civil war. No one is yet certain. But Hizbullah has given itself a little more strength while its Syrian allies face a tremendous challenge, insurance in the event the regime in Syria collapses.
