As Obama signaled a more liberal second term during his second inaugural speech, I braced for the Israeli election. International media predicted a “right-wing doomsday,” decrying the end of once dominant “secular liberalism” in Israeli politics.
One article from Israel/Palestine-based +972 Magazine projected that Prime Minister Netanyahu was losing ground—to the extreme right. In other words, Netanyahu was losing votes to his likely coalition partner. (Click here for full election results.)
American media outlets gave the Israeli election a non-story treatment, which contrasted quite ironically with the hours of televised Israel-pandering that comprised the entirety of the American elections foreign policy debate. Election fatigue might be one reason for the media ‘blackout.’ No matter that it was in a different country, if I were an Ohio voter still recovering from the deluge of campaign advertising, I would probably run away screaming at the mere mention of the word “election.”
Unfortunately, that the Israeli election was more of a personality prize than a policy debate is probably closer to the truth.
That’s not to say there isn’t a whole slate of pressing issues facing Israelis: the peace process, rising inequality, existential threats to security, extremist Settler violence — to name a few. Yet, instead of campaigning on policy differences between the major parties, wannabe and current Members of the Knesset relied on their personalities to install their lists in the parliament (sorry, Shaul Mofaz).
The result: An election about nothing at all.
Netanyahu won the election without ever publishing a platform. Second-place winner Lapid formed a party whose online agenda doesn’t mention the Palestinians — or any foreign policy. Labor leader Shelly Yachimovich used last year’s social protests to put a new shine on Labor’s age-old platform while campaigning mostly on her anti-Netanyahu sentiments. If the Israeli right-wing can congregate around their racist or else untenable visions of the West Bank, at least the left-of-center bloc can form around their shared contempt of the Prime Minister. Not much of a policy platform.
On the other hand, London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi was only partially correct when it wrote that the election pitted “the radical and racist Right” against “the even more radical and racist Right…”
Assuming those epithets referred to Likud and newcomer Naftali Bennet of the “they will never get a state” party (Jewish Home), they failed to see the rise of vague centrism in Israel. In that respect, the election was — as a friend put it — just hopeful enough to be disappointing a week later.
That week has arrived now that the results are in and party leaders have commenced Step 2 of the election-palooza. While Americans go to bed on Election Day and wake up to the next Leader of the Free World, Israelis only wake up to the first round of canoodling know as coalition-building.
Netanyahu is poised to form the government and he faces three choices, each with slight differences. It’s possible that the Likud-Haredim alliance could come to an end if Netanyahu decides to bring Jewish Home into the fold as the latter supports the end of the yeshiva exclusions in the IDF — a way of life fiercely guarded by Haredi political parties (United Torah Judaism and Shas).
More importantly is the question of Lapid’s ascendance to the Knesset elite. The journalist-turned-politician said he would not form “an anti-Netanyahu bloc,” perhaps signaling his willingness to accept Netanyahu’s invitation to the dance. Lapid also said he would not join a coalition unwilling to restart negotiations with the Palestinians. These statements are diametrically opposed and may signal that Lapid might be unaware of the old adage: “You dance with the one who brung ya.”
The skinny: Israel’s new government will be either right-wing/ultra-religious, right-wing/ultra-nationalist, or “C,” all of the above. The way in which Lapid might temper the coalition remains to be seen, mostly because of Lapid’s style of rhetoric, exemplified by his above comments.
It doesn’t really matter though. The left-of-center bloc is united against Personality Minister Netanyahu and the right-wing bloc is united against meaningful policy positions. Whether the PM’s cabinet does a shuffle-ball-change or a two-step (one forward, three back), the status quo won’t change. Prices will rise, politicians will politic, and the Palestinians will still be ignored at the dance.
By the way, 58% of Israeli Arabs made it to the polls, seating 11 MK’s (including Hadash, an Arab-Jewish socialist party).
None of these parties will be asked to form a government.
