Israelis and Israel’s supporters often think of the region as collectively against the Jewish State. Absolute reviling by the region’s Arabs constitutes the general Israeli mentality. Lebanon once had Christian allies – a fantasy of the past. Iraq once had the forsaken Kurds – too busy with their own affairs. But that way of looking at things is simplistic and convenient. For anyone who read what I wrote about Lebanon, I am sorry to mislead you, but Lebanon’s ethnic problems have been complicated by the newer, younger generation. Sectarianism still rules, but it will eventually face a very strong liberal counter-current from a Westernized Lebanese population.
Syria might be dominated by a single sect, but it is governed more by a conglomerate of minorities. Alawites, Druze and Christians compose the elite there, but the country has changed as the West’s disdain for sectarianism creeps in. There are members of each sect well-involved in the protests against the regime, including Alawite soldiers refusing to fire on unarmed civilians. All the same, the assemblage of different minorities makes the issues in Syria much more matters of power than pure sectarianism.
The Syrian government is trying to push sectarian buttons in order to motivate the socially preferred ethnic groups. The Assad family clan built its power by relying on relatives and associated clans. Their tribes happened to have been uniform in religion. Allies came from other minority groups that were attracted to the same political party – the Baath – because it promised equal opportunity regardless of religious or tribal affiliation. That gave Hafez al-Assad the clout he needed to built a stable leadership, and its patronage system is what his son is afraid of losing.
As with Lebanon, it is tempting to play the sectarian card to try understanding the situation. But in reality it is a matter of who has the guns. In Lebanon, it happens to be a Shiite militia. In Syria, it happens to be a military disproportionately stacked with Alawite manpower. Even if those armed were diverse, the armed are the powerful and the powerful are reluctant to give up what they have. The Syrian regime has benefited from sectarianism in the past, but its lacking today scares the hell out of Bashar al-Assad.
