I have gotten my bachelor’s and started my master’s degrees in the era where Iranian nuclear proliferation has supposedly shaped the strategic map of the Middle East. It, coupled with Iranian influence, has apparently pushed Israel and its authoritarian Arab neighbors to be less than veiled about their relationship (and willingness to work together) to contain and even topple Iran.
But the alliance, if it could ever have been called that, has been brittle. Operations against Hizbullah and Hamas in 2006 and 2009 have pushed back those Arab allies, and now that Turkey has become hostile and the Palestinians have trapped Israel in a diplomatic corner, the alliance has exposed itself to be a farce. Peace has only been beneficial for Arab countries as so long as Israel would have the upper hand diplomatically and militarily. The fall of Mubarak makes working with Israel seem even less necessary.
Enter Iran. The Iranian government is hostile and its government has fomented anti-Semitism in the region when it seemed to be out of fashion to talk about it publicly. Despite economic problems at home, it transfers tens of millions of dollars worth of weaponry and support to Hizbullah every year. No matter how unbelievable an idea it would be for a government to arbitrarily or aggressively use a nuclear weapon, Jews and Israelis do not put it past the Iranian regime. We do not buy for a second rhetoric about “peaceful” nuclear energy. Few Jews, and none I know, have entertained the statement “Well, that would be okay.” No one takes that seriously.
But they might if a different government were in control of Tehran. Egypt and Jordan have openly pursued nuclear programs. And despite scholars’ knowledge that a revolution like Egypt’s was possible, and the array of political challenges to Jordan’s king, Israel has made no statement. Perhaps she should, but she has reserved her political capital for Iran.
That capital would better be invested in other places, especially considering how little the US and Europe has returned for it regarding Iran.
I think it is worth eyeing a future with a different Iranian government, not as radical or impossible a suggestion as it used to be. The regime there is showing cracks, and is well aware young Iranians’ parents are telling them about how they overthrew Iran’s dictatorial king in 1979.
In the long run, I do not worry about an Iran with nuclear power. Nuclear proliferation is inevitable because of how efficient the energy production is. What matters is delaying Iranian access to it until a democratic government comes to power.
